If the gods of Internet technology and the editor are smiling upon me, this column will magically appear in the ether on December 17, the last day of 2004 that this column will be published. The media has a widespread tradition of using the last remaining days of any year to either look back on the year gone by or look ahead to the one to come. The retrospective reports are either reviews of the year's major headlines or lists in the form of "the top 10...of 2004", "the worst 10...of 2004", "the best 10...of 2004" or "the some other superlative 10...of 2004". You fill in the "...". If you read, watch, and listen to enough media, you will find lists for every noun in the English language.

I feel that it would be pointless for me to write a retrospective article. You are likely at least as literate as I am (not a particularly high hurdle to clear), and you probably read the same news stories that I did. Why should I waste your time telling you things that you already know? (Not that it has ever stopped me before.)

That just leaves the second type of article, predictions for the coming year. I am very reluctant to write along these lines as well because the ebb and flow of information technology is so volatile as to make predicting IT's future a fool's game. But what the heck? Here are some absolutely fearless forecasts from your resident fool.

Microsoft Windows will still be the dominant operating system for desktop PCs at the end of 2005.

Every once in a while, someone points out that more people are starting to use Macs and Linux. I don't have the numbers, so I don't know if that's true. Even if it is, the big question is, so what? Two is 100% more than one, while 1,000,001 is only 0.0001% more than 1,000,000. A 100% gain doesn't sound so impressive when considered in that context. The fact that other operating systems may or may not be experiencing large percentage gains will not be a serious threat to Windows' hegemony for many years to come.

There is a reason why a dominant operating system exists. It's called "network effects." If there were two incompatible telephone networks, one that could connect you to only one person and another that could connect you to anyone in the world, the first would be almost worthless, while the other would be priceless. Likewise, as more people use a particular operating system, the more valuable it becomes. Application developers who want to extract a few dollars out of users' pockets will flock to the popular platform, creating scores of competing applications for pretty well any conceivable purpose, not to mention some that most of us would just as soon not conceive. In addition, you will be more likely to be able to easily share compatible files with friends and colleagues when necessary. And there will be a large base of experience that you can draw on when a fatal system error throws you into the blue screen of death. Think about it. If we ever reach the point where parents and their children use different operating systems, who will tell parents how to use the new technology?

A segment of the population will continue to protest, whine, and complain about Microsoft's desktop dominance.

The complaints usually revolve around poor software quality and security and a stifling of innovation. I suspect that there are one or two people in Redmond, Washington, who dispute all three points. Here's the bottom line: Regardless of who is right, the majority of even the most vociferous of complainers will continue to use Windows throughout 2005 and beyond. I would raise my hand to include myself in this group, but then I'd have to stop typing (in Microsoft Word, running under Microsoft Windows, by the way).

There will still be at least a few iSeries servers in use at the end of 2005. (Correction: Make that at least a few hundred thousand.)

I first entered what was then the AS/400 arena when I was subcontracted to write a piece of marketing material for the launch of AS/400 Advanced Series in 1994. Back then, lo those more than 10 years ago, people said to me, "Why are you getting involved with that? It's a dying technology. IBM is going to kill it off." Yeah, right. The funny thing is that I'm still hearing people say it. Just substitute "iSeries" for "AS/400." I'll probably still be hearing about the imminent death of iSeries (or i5 or whatever the gods of IBM marketing have renamed it by then) 10 years from now.

The prophets of IT will continue to make predictions that, with a few years' hindsight, will prove to be wrong.

The oracles (note to editor: lowercase intentional. I mean seers, not the company in Redwood Shores, California) of IT love to forecast trends and proclaim "the next big thing." It's in their blood. They can't help themselves. Of course, as I mentioned in my opening paragraphs, the nature of the beast defies accurate predictions. I suspect that the people with the best records formulate their forecasts with dartboards. I know that's how I do it.

We will forget how far off-base the prognosticators were.

It usually takes a few years before one of their predictions can be proved, beyond a shadow of a doubt, to be complete and utter poppycock. By then, we are so busy listening with such rapt attention to their latest forecasts and declarations that we totally forget that all of their past claims were as wrong as wrong can be. My readers are the exception that proves the rule. They are far too wise to ever take a single word I say seriously.

The most activity in the forums attached to my tirades will come not when I talk exclusively about technology, but when I so much as tentatively touch on politics or U.S./Canadian relations, no matter how frivolous, vague, tangential, insignificant, and infinitesimally brief the reference may be.

Don't ask me why. It just seems to be true.

Predictions and Hopes

Well, that's it. Those are all of my fearless predictions for IT in 2005. OK, maybe they're not all that fearless, but fearlessness has never been my strong suit. In truth, I have absolutely no idea what will happen in the IT industry tomorrow, let alone a year down the road. Whatever may come in 2005, I trust that it will bring you peace, prosperity, health, and happiness. Don't hold me responsible if I prove to be wrong, but let's hope that I'm right.

Joel Klebanoff is a consultant, a writer, and president of Klebanoff Associates, Inc., a Toronto, Canada-based marketing communications firm. Joel has 25 years experience working in IT, first as a programmer/analyst and then as a marketer. He holds a Bachelor of Science in computer science and an MBA, both from the University of Toronto. Contact Joel at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. He predicts that in 2005 night will continue to follow day unless, of course, there is a problem with that whole earth rotation thing, in which case, well, never mind.

Joel Klebanoff is a consultant, writer, and formerly president of Klebanoff Associates, Inc., a Toronto-based marketing communications firm. He has 30 years' experience in various IT capacities and now specializes in writing articles, white papers, and case studies for IT vendors and publications across North America. Joel is also the author of BYTE-ing Satire, a compilation of a year's worth of his columns. He holds a BS in computer science and an MBA, both from the University of Toronto.

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