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The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

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  • The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

    You're welcome, PH. I appreciate it. rd

  • #2
    The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

    Ellison just laid off 5,000 employees a week after taking over Peoplesoft and JD Edwards, 600 out of 2,000 in Denver where JDE is. Oracle says they're keeping 90% of technical staff. McElvaney (founder of JDE, right?) says he can't believe it, never saw this coming. Ellison tried to buy him five years ago. The evil empires roll on, resistance is futile, all your customers are belong to us. The real poison pill is the one you take when you go public. Out of this I see a lessening of the JDE RPG job board ads, which with no JDE experience no one wanted to talk to me anyway. I just hope the lessening is from some surplus JDE employees and not people giving up on JDE. It's arguable that some activity there could pick up to avoid dealing with Ellison, but I think everyone sees the handwriting on the wall as far as Oracle's intentions. When asked about continuing to support JDE, Oracle said it is only natural that customers will want to switch to the Oracle ERP and database. Hopefully the happy talk is over. rd

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    • #3
      The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

      Ralph Daugherty wrote: McElvaney (founder of JDE, right?) says he can't believe it, never saw this coming. Ellison tried to buy him five years ago. The evil empires roll on, resistance is futile, all your customers are belong to us. IMHO, I don't see how anyone with any finincial acumen could not have seen it coming. In my previous posts I argued why I thought Oracle would spin off JDE. It was for financial reasons. Oracle was hurting before the purchase, and now they are in serious smeg. They will be forced to cut many corners for some time to come until they can spin off part of the purchase and gain some revenue. JDE is the most likely candidate. Dave

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      • #4
        The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

        In my opinion, Dave, Ellison's ego far outweighs reason. He will never release IBM customers of the DB2 database to continue on their merry way now that they belong to him. He will offer them a chance to give him money, but failing that he will do his best to make sure they don't give IBM any money either. IBM's customers are belong to him now. rd

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        • #5
          The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

          Ellison has a board of directors, and with SOX legislation so prevalent, you bet that all CEOs are on a rather short leash. Dave

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          • #6
            The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

            If there was even the slightest possibility of spinning JD Edwards back out as a public company, he wouldn't have decimated JD Edwards headquarters in Denver a week after taking them over. 600 out of 2,000. It is take no prisoners, just customers, time. rd

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            • #7
              The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

              I'm going to post this here because it's a prime example of what I've been talking about. The subject is the FBI's $170 million case file software development disaster which is literally unusable after five years development and will now be scrapped. First, I researched this and posted about it in 1999 when I was looking at massive government waste in software development. Forget about the stuff they are saying about Sep. 11, 2001 adding new requirements and original delivery scheduled for 2003. This system was promised for July, 2000 because it was Oracle and web browsers. It was a piece of cake, they virtually said. Now I'm going to paste in here a description of the system from May, 2004 from Computer Science and Telecommunications Board. This $170 million disaster is yet one more shot at trying to do real work with a browser, oh excuse me, with a "user friendly" interface. After five years and $170 million dollars, maybe 10% of what it is supposed to do was even attempted, and even that is virtually unusable. I say this is yet one more example of SQL against Oracle through a browser as enterprise software disaster, and that this is exactly the type of stuff we deliver that works with the various 5250 emulator based interfaces and RPG against DB2/400. If IBM really wanted to showcase the AS/400, they could donate an RPG case file system running on AS/400's to the FBI in conjunction with donation of third party vendors to showcase their products. It'd actually be a little tough to choose the best mixture of technologies, but they'd trip over themselves vying for the honor. Can you imagine the publicity for the AS/400 and technologies used that a working case file system would generate? It actually should take an AS/400 and RPG and the AS/400's legion of third party products ranging from internet to document management systems to do this when you're dealing with that much production data, in my opinion. Data warehouses are fine for warehousing queries, but the AS/400 and RPG is what's needed to do production against that much data and the wide range of communications and requirements such as the FBI case system would require. rd from Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (fair use) A Review of the FBI's Trilogy Information Technology Modernization Program (2004) Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) Driven initially by the need for improved support of the investigative process, the FBI has embarked on a major IT modernization program, whose main focus today is the Trilogy program. Trilogy has two major objectives. The first is the creation of a more modern end-user-oriented infrastructure, consisting of a secure wide-area network and related local area networks, together with modern workstations, printers, scanners, and a base of commercial software applications such as browsers. This infrastructure is intended to provide an enhanced platform for modern applications.6 The second objective of Trilogy is to provide enhanced support of the investigative process. This objective is the focus of the Virtual Case File (VCF) that will provide via a browser interface a user-friendly capability for agents to electronically manage case-related information critical for criminal investigation. At this writing (late March 2004), neither the infrastructure deployment nor the VCF application is complete, although significant progress has been made on both. In addition to the original two objectives, a general requirement to support the counterterrorism mission has also been placed on Trilogy, although specifications for that novel task have not been fully developed. The FBI has also embarked on the development and implementation of systems to support its intelligence functions, which are also important to the counterterrorism mission. Central to this thrust is the creation of a large data repository, referred to as the IDW, the Integrated Data Warehouse, also in its early stages. 6 As used in this report, the term “platform” refers to the computing infrastructure supporting FBI applications, specifically the combination of a type of hardware, say a PC-compatible personal computer, and specific software, such as a specific operating system, Web browser, and set of basic office applications.

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              • #8
                The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                IBM did very well 4th quarter. Made $3B dollars. Now they have $10B and analysts think they may be looking for a software acquisition or two. They bought Lotus and Rational. I guess they'll be looking for more middleware to plug into Websphere. Novell with Suse, Ximian, their directory, and ownership of the sale of Unix to SCO which is currently suing IBM probably would be a high value low cost acquisition that would add a lot of middleware to their table. rd

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                • #9
                  The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                  I'm looking forward to Lee Kroon's analysis of Ellison's statement Tuesday, but what I see on vnunet.com this morning confirms my earlier posts, in my opinion. Starts out by saying that Ellison is reaching out to Peoplesoft and JDE customers, which consists of Ellison saying that current development will continue till 2006! LOL That is this year. Then all 8,000 Oracle developers will work on Java language Fusion of all three companies' products, to be delivered in two years in 2008 with, get this, some parts delivered sooner. Whoa nellie. That's beyond aggressive. I would say undoable, given that Ellison also says change to Fusion will be an automatic conversion from your current product, but hey, what does it matter, I can't see thousands of Peoplesoft and JD Edwards customers running their ERP system data through a converter and bringing up a 16,000 man-year effort to see what happens. But that's just me. I don't get paid the big bucks (or any bucks) to bet the business. An interesting thing is that Ellison dropped the "No one should modify our software" to a Java based service oriented architecture, enabling customers to build modifications using Java development tools. I take this to mean Java source won't be available but SOAP type API calls will be liberally implemented to call pre and/or post processes like triggers to modify the data. I've always advocated this when asked but no one has ever done it. It takes a lot longer than mangling the code. But with no code, no choice. As to well, nothing will really change, I leave you with Ellison's thought for the day: "Some time short of 2013, at a time that is convenient for your organisation, you will upgrade to the merged product," he told users. rd

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                  • #10
                    The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                    A very interesting article in InformationWeek this morning, "Retailers Take Stock". In it Casual Male is so sure of their inventory management that they will give away jeans for free if not in stock and they can't ship it to your home within five days. The article says this is unheard of in retail, and indeed stock outages are said to cost billions in lost sales every year. The supply chain software that Casual Male counts on to make sure they don't have to give away their product? JDA and PKMS running on an AS/400. But guess what? The AS/400 isn't mentioned in the article. Once again the computer that companies count on to run their business is not even known in the IT industry as the computer that companies count on to run their business. Casual Male knows they can count on it. IBM keeps changing the name as if they are ashamed of it and bragging about how it really is just a shell for AIX, Linux, and even Windows. I am sure AIX, Linux, and especially Windows IT people are as dumbfounded as AS/400 IT people at this revelation from Armonk marketing schmucks. I posted once before that IBM should keep an older version of the AS/400 available, for example, to run OfficeVision and other stable technologies, perhaps in an OS/400 that's priced to reflect the work has already been done on it and stopped. They should also keep the name of the box prior to i5 and i5/OS as the AS/400 and split off into their hallucinatory world of i5 as OS shell for Linux and AIX and see how far that pipe dream gets them. Meanwhile, keep an AS/400 out there for the real world called AS/400 and don't screw it up. Thousand of companies are counting on it. Casual Male is the latest to publically bet their company on AS/400, OS/400, and RPG. Somebody should tell Armonk. rd

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                    • #11
                      The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                      Ralph Dougherty wrote: IBM keeps changing the name as if they are ashamed of it It didn't escape my attention that a recent major article on the Power 5 chip never mentioned the I5, the iseries, or the AS/400! Dave

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                      • #12
                        The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                        ** This thread discusses the article: The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community **
                        ** This thread discusses the Content article: The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community **
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                        • #13
                          The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                          ** This thread discusses the article: The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community **
                          Prediction #3: PeopleSoft customers will decide that they can work with Oracle, and Oracle and IBM will decide that they can work with each other. This is already true. If you look at DICE and query IBM at any area code, you will get several pages of IBM Nationwide responses. 3/4 of the ads are asking for individuals with SAP, Peoplesoft, or Oracle skills. The rest are for miscellaneous IT high level consultant types.

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                          • #14
                            The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                            ** This thread discusses the article: The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community **
                            Some good insights, especially with ASNA and LANSA working with Microsoft on capturing the SMB business, which assumes that Great Plains and Navision are soon rewritten successfully in .NET architecture and then auxilliary .NET applications are written by the customer in ASNA taking advantage of native I/O, even on Windows servers, against ASNA's own database. Hard for me to believe as everything will be against SQL Server. Their apps work against SQL Server but I don't know if RPG native I/O will or just SQL. Also, I can't imagine Peoplesoft and JDE customers deciding they can work with Oracle unless Oracle provides support for their products. As it will take some time to integrate JDE World, OneWorld, Peoplesoft, and Oracle 11i or whatever, I am quite sure that Oracle will make soothing sounds in the meantime, but no way are they going to support these lines of products. The sounds will become less soothing when they begin to sound like you can meet regulatory or supply chain or integration or whatever requirements if you switch to Oracle apps and an Oracle database. The else will be implied. On the other hand, I believe application systems drive sales, not programming languages or operating systems. I used to understand how application systems drove sales when BPCS and JD Edwards was driving it on the AS/400. Now I don't know anymore. In a way I think SAP has a tremendous opportunity and I really think SSA Global and JDA/PKMS can make great inroads on the right sized/priced AS/400's. But with the giants Microsoft and Oracle gobbling up ERP's, I think the world will create an open source ERP for Linux, probably in C like SAP. rd

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                            • #15
                              The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community

                              ** This thread discusses the article: The Year Ahead: Predictions for the iSeries Community **
                              Just read another IT article, this one in ComputerWorld. I guess I can't blame the reporter. He is quoting consulting groups and IT executives. Here is what our stellar industry luminaries are saying: "After coddling aging core systems for decades, many top tier banks are planning or implementing change-outs of old COBOL based platforms with open, Web enabled applications." Now isn't this sweet? "Open" has been shanghaied by webheads to mean in a freakin browser. Web enabled is open and COBOL green screen is not. Web services is open and API is not. And on and on, every day, until the inevitable: "[One] bank used a [web enabled] package to replace a green screen application that was no longer supported because the supplier went out of business." And why would that be, may we ask? "[An IT executive] said developers couldn't keep up with required product-development cycles on the older sytems. "Today, we can bring a new product to market in weeks," he said. "With our old legacy systems, it would take months."" Some variation of this is reported every week in article after article in every IT publication. I guess if you repeat a lie often enough it must be the truth. rd

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